Scouting The MLB - July 27

Scouting The MLB - July 27

Check out our top DFS plays, value picks, and stacking options in today's publicly available column

Weather Report

  • Thunderstorms could effect pitchers in Cincinnati, New York (Yankees), and Chicago (Cubs) today

Stackable Menu

  1. Colorado Rockies hosting RHP Edinson Volquez
  2. Oakland Athletics hosting RHP Miles Mikolas
  3. Cleveland Indians visiting LHP Bruce Chen
  4. Pittsburgh Pirates visiting LHP Franklin Morales
  5. Tampa Rays hosting RHP Allen Webster

Longshot stack:Kansas City Royals hosting RHP Danny Salazar


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Pitchers

Two Studs:

Adam Wainwright (STL) @ CHC: $10,500 – Facing RHP Kyle Hendricks

Wainwright failed to post a Quality Start for just the 4th time this season as the red-hot Rays got to him on Tuesday night. However, if the weather holds in Chicago this afternoon, I’d fully expect the Ace to bounce back. His struggles against the Cubs this season are somewhat inexplicable, as he’s dominated nearly every other MLB lineup but is allowing the Cardinals division rivals to hit .320 through 3 starts this season. In fact, the last time he pitched at Wrigley Field he was touched up for 6 ER in his 2nd worst outing of the year. Yet Wainwright has a 6-1 record and 3.12 K/BB ratio in his career at Wrigley, and has followed up every Loss with a superb start so far this year. Look for him to use his incredible curveball to keep the Cubs LHB in check as he’ll likely return to his normal standard of production.

Scott Kazmir (OAK) @ TEX: $9000 – Facing RHP Miles Mikolas

Because of all the dicey forecasts today, Kazmir may very well be my top SP option as he toes the rubber in sunny Texas. His matchup is nothing to sneeze at as well, considering he’s starting opposite a rookie RHP and facing a watered down Rangers lineup that is scoring just 3.5 runs per game this month. The name of the game on DraftKings is limiting base runners while striking batters out, and Kazmir has done both consistently with the 3rd best WHIP (0.99) and 11th best K-rate (23.4%) in the American League this season. He’s fortunate enough to lead the MLB in run support, and that trend should continue as the A’s batters have a very good chance to produce against Mikolas. The Rangers young right-hander may have held the Yankees in check (who hasn’t) in his last start, but he’s still sporting a 7.48 ERA through 4 MLB starts and is allowing batters to post a .459 wOBA in 2 home starts. With the Athletics heavily favored (-202), Kazmir has a great chance to earn a Win, and should pitch comfortably if he’s afforded an early lead.



Value Play:

Doug Fister (WAS) @ CIN: $7500 – Facing RHP Mat Latos

Fister is no longer the model of consistency, but he has a good chance to post a Quality Start in this scenario. The lineup the Reds are forced to trot out on a daily basis is essentially toothless. With injuries and regression (see: Mesoraco) limiting their collective production, Cincy is dead last in the N.L. with just 68 runs scored through 21 July games. Fister was able to navigate a stronger Reds lineup back on May 20, and current Reds are now batting just .145 against him. Don’t expect any lofty strikeout totals from the sinkerballer, but he remains a solid 2nd option in 50/50 and H2H formats this afternoon.

Longshot Pitcher:

Chris Archer (TB) vs. BOS: $8200 – Facing RHP Allen Webster

The Brewers Jimmy Nelson will get plenty of play as a potential longshot, but I’ll suggest a slightly more expensive, but much more experienced right-hander as today’s GPP play. Archer is a young fireballer that can rack up Ks when he’s hitting his spots. Like most Rays pitchers, he’s been much better at home, where he’s sporting a 2.73 FIP and 9.06 K/9 ratio. Production from the Red Sox offense has been difficult to predict (to say the least) but Archer was able to blow a ton of pitches by those hitters as he struck out 11 over 6 IP in his last start against Boston. Red Sox batters have a 35.5% K-rate in 62 at bats against Archer (.194 average) and are batting just .243 on the road this season. They’ve been shutout more than any team in the Majors during a disappointing 2014 campaign, so it’s worth a chance that the Sox continue to struggle as they face a talented young RHP.



Batters

Catcher:

Salvador Perez (KC) vs. CLE: $3900 – Facing RHP Danny Salazar

Salazar came back from a lengthy stint in the Minors to hold the Twins in check over 5 innings, but it’s doubtful that he avoids serious damage in consecutive starts. The young RHP simply has not been careful enough with Major League sluggers, and has terrible reverse-platoon splits as he’s allowed 2.19 HR/9 to RHB. Righties are sporting a .410 wOBA against Salazar, and Perez is a reverse-platoon hitter that has produced 26 of his 29 XBH against RHP this season. The Royals backstop deserves consideration in all formats if he’s in the lineup this Sunday.

Potential Value:

Francisco Cervelli ($3000) has been solid catching for the Yankees, and his bat has come alive as he’s hit in 7 straight games. He should draw the start against LHP J.A. Happ.

Longshot:

A.J. Pierzynski ($3300) seems to have found new life with the Cardinals and slapped 3 hits last night. We’ll see if he can keep it going against inexperienced RHP Kyle Hendricks.



First Base:

Brandon Moss (OAK) @ TEX: $5400 – Facing RHP Miles Mikolas

Moss is a bit over priced because of his Grand Slam the other night, but if you can afford to include him in an Athletics stack this afternoon, he probably won’t disappoint. He doesn’t hit for average against RHP, but his .265 ISO is all you need to know when searching for upside at the 1B position. All signs point to Mikolas struggling against the league’s best offense, which would put the A’s cleanup hitter in a great position to succeed.

Potential Value:

Lucas Duda ($4200) is averaging 10.1 DK points over his last 10 games and should be in the heart of the Mets order against young RHP Jimmy Nelson today.

Longshot:

Adrian Gonzalez ($4300) is really heating up lately for the Dodgers and gets a great matchup against Jake Peavy- who has allowed 14 HR to LHB already this season.



Second Base:

Ian Kinsler (DET) @ LAA: $4500 – Facing LHP Hector Santiago

I know Santiago has good splits against most Tigers batters, but while he’s made 11 appearances against Detroit, he’s only made 4 starts. The LHP has been exponentially worse in a starting role this season, and I doubt he dances around trouble in this matchup. As a team, the Tigers lead the Majors with a .283 batting average against LHP. Kinsler is hitting .306 against lefties over the past 3 seasons, and could break out of a quiet stretch as the Tigers likely 2-hitter this afternoon.

Potential Value:

Enrique Hernandez ($2800) reached twice yesterday and could be part of a cheap Astros stack as they host weak RHP Jacob Turner.

Longshot:

Kolten Wong ($3900) continues to flash tons of upside as the Cardinals 2-hitter, and is crushing Cubs pitching to the tune of a .463 average this season.



Third Base:

Carlos Santana (CLE) @ KC: $5000 – Facing LHP Bruce Chen

Santana was a fantastic play against LHP Danny Duffy two days ago, and then flashed his power over the weekend with 3 HR off Royals pitchers. He’s averaging a whopping 20.8 DK PPG over his last 5 apperances, and will likely cleanup against Chen this afternoon. The Royals southpaw is sporting a terrible 5.80 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season, and has only drawn 6 starts, so you can tell how confident his manager is in him. Santana has been hitting a higher average against LHP, so he’s actually more of a safe play today despite his recent eye-popping performances.

Potential Value:

Yangervis Solarte (SD) remains a solid value play at $3200. LHP Mike Minor has been giving up plenty of hits recently and the switch-hitter is rolling with his new team.

Longshot:

Nolan Arenado ($4200) would be part of a Rockies stack today. Edinson Volquez is always capable of giving up a string of hits, especially at Coors Field.



Shortstop:

Josh Rutledge (COL) vs. PIT: $4200 – Facing RHP Edinson Volquez

Rutledge is producing at Tulowitzkian levels right now, as he’s 12 for 27 (.444) and averaging 14 DK points over his last 6 games. Because he’s significantly cheaper than the all-star he’s filling in for, he could be called “Tulo-lite,” and he certainly deserves consideration as the Rockies likely 2-hitter at home today. Edinson Volquez will make his first appearance at Coors Field this season, where he has a horrific 8.45 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in 8 career starts. The Pirates RHP has a tendency to unravel at times, making the Rockies an interesting stack option this afternoon.

Potential Value:

Danny Santana’s ($3400) 0-4 performance last night should be ignored because no Twins had a chance against Chris Sale when he’s on like that. He’s in a great position to bounce back against weak RHP Scott Carroll.

Longshot:

If young prospect Chris Taylor ($2000) is in the Mariners lineup he’s worth a look as a punt play.



Outfielders:

Adam Jones (BAL) @ SEA: $4800 – Facing LHP Roenis Elias

Jones is our longshot to produce huge DK points from the outfield slot today. He’ll face LHP Roenis Elias for the first time, and the Mariners southpaw throws hard enough for his fastball to end up over 450 feet from home plate against this particular slugger. Jones has the best wOBA (.517) against LHP in the Majors, and 2nd place isn’t even close. He’s still a boom or bust option, but could be a huge factor in GPPs this afternoon.

Corey Dickerson (COL) vs. PIT: $4700 – Facing RHP Edison Volquez

Dickerson is always a threat to light it up at Coors Field. The second-year outfielder is batting .369 with 26 RBI in 40 appearances at home this season, and will have the platoon advantage today. Volquez has been vulnerable to lefties throughout his career, and Dickerson is 3 for 5 with 2 doubles against him. Based on where Dickerson is batting (likely 5th) he may be in a position to drive in plenty of runs, and should be considered along with fellow lefty Carlos Gonzalez.

Christian Yelich (MIA) @ ATL: $4100 – Facing RHP Colin McHugh

As a prolific leadoff hitter, Yelich has been one of the safest bets in DFS over the past week or so. He’s averaging a solid 8.1 DK points over his last 10 games, and has multiple hits in 4 of his last 6. With 27 XBH and 13 SB in somewhat limited playing time this season, he’s shown plenty of power against right and left-handed pitchers. McHugh is making his first start in 3 weeks, and was struggling prior to his stint on the DL, so Yelich is a solid option once again.



Potential Values:

Allen Webster will start for the Red Sox, and he REALLY struggled against LHB last season, giving up a .509 wOBA to opposing lefties. That makes Kevin Kiermaier, and Matt Joyce fantastic options for $3900.

Ben Revere ($3600) is leading off against weak LHP Vidal Nuno. It would be surprising if he didn’t set the table for the Phillies offense.

Jeff Francoeur (SD) is an intriguing option at $3000. He has the platoon advantage against LHP Mike Minor and has hit his former teammate well in limited at bats.


I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7

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