Scouting The MLB - July 21

Scouting The MLB - July 21

Back to the grind with a full slate of MLB games this Monday

Weather Report

  • Scattered storms in Atlanta worth monitoring

Stackable Menu

  1. Washington Nationals (righties) visiting LHP Franklin Morales
  2. Minnesota Twins hosting LHP Franklin Morales T.J. House
  3. Los Angeles Angels hosting RHP Bud Norris
  4. Detroit Tigers visiting LHP Vidal Nuno
  5. Baltimore Orioles visiting RHP Matt Shoemaker
  6. Longshot stack:San Francisco Giants (righties) visiting LHP Cliff Lee


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    Pitchers

    Two Studs:

    Chris Sale (CWS) vs. KC: $12,100 – Facing RHP Jeremy Guthrie

    Paying up for Sale is a good idea in 50/50 and H2H games, as he’s looked borderline untouchable for stretches in his last 3 starts and the White Sox essentially lost in Boston on July 9 when Robin Ventura pulled his Ace too early. His adversary, Guthrie, has been getting rocked recently, and the Royals struggles against lefties were just confirmed as they struggled against Lester yesterday. Royals hitters have combined to score 81 runs (worst in the A.L.) and have an ISO of just .110 against LHP this season. Sale is holding hitters to a .201 wOBA and has an 11.38 K/9 ratio in 9 home starts, he should come through as the top SP play this evening.

    Julio Teheran (ATL) vs. MIA: $9400 – Facing RHP Tom Koehler

    Teheran is a perfect GPP option tonight. He was rocked two starts ago, and his numbers look worse than his performance in his last start against the Cubs. So Teheran comes into a home matchup with a Marlins team that leads the N.L. in strikeouts (865) with a deflated price tag. Only San Diego has scored fewer runs on the road than Miami this year, and current Marlins are hitting just .226 (including Stanton’s 2-15) against Teheran. The Braves young right-hander has been lights out with a 1.23 ERA and .177 BAA at home this season, and could meet or exceed value with a solid performance.



    Value Play:

    Wily Peralta (MIL) vs. CIN: $6700 – Facing RHP Mat Latos

    Peralta is actually a pretty decent bet to hit value at this price, considering he’s only produced single-digit DK points in 4 starts this season. The Reds are hitting just .198 over the past 7 days and are sliding out of the N.L. Central race as their offense continues to sputter. Peralta has been solid with a 3.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 7 career starts against Cincinnati and will have a great chance to succeed against a shorthanded lineup. With a high K/9, but also a high HR rate against LHB, he’s a bit of a gamble tonight, but even a mediocre performance of 12-15 DK points would allow him to meet value.

    Longshot Pitcher:

    Shane Greene (NYY) vs. TEX: $7100 – Facing RHP Miles Mikolas

    Is Shane Green this good? He posted mediocre numbers throughout his Minor League career, yet seems to be stepping up as a Yankee in 2 starts this month. He was dominant against the division-leading Orioles before the break, fanning 9 (including Nelson Cruz 3 times) during 7+ innings of shutout ball. The fact that his adversary is equally inexperienced and probably less talented means Greene may get some run support, which has been rare for the Yankees staff at home this season. The Rangers offense is a bit of a wildcard- scoring tons of runs one night and getting shutout the next- but if Greene can navigate the heart of their dangerous lineup, he could be a cheap longshot that pays off in tournaments.



    Batters

    Catcher:

    Wilson Ramos (WAS) @ COL: $4000 – Facing LHP Franklin Morales

    Ramos isn’t playing every day for the Nationals, but he’s been contributing in every start as he’s hit safely in 16 of his last 17 appearances. After logging 3 hits in Saturday’s win over Milwaukee, Ramos got yesterday off, and will be well rested in time for the series opener at Coors Field. He’s batting .355 against LHP this season, and should be able to generate a bit more power in the park with the highest Run Factor in the Majors. Morales tip-toed around the Padres and Dodgers in his last two home starts, but I’d bet on the Nats getting to him in his 3rd start since rejoining the rotation.

    Potential Value:

    I’d consider swapping in Travis d’Arnaud ($2600) or Anthony Recker ($2800) if either young catcher is starting for the Mets. Mariners LHP Roenis Elias has been struggling lately and they would have a platoon advantage.

    Longshot:

    Buster Posey ($4300) is a longshot if you’re paying up for him considering his recent track record and Cliff Lee’s reputation, but the Phillies LHP could be rusty, and Posey crushes lefties.



    First Base:

    Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) vs. DET: $5700 – Facing RHP Justin Verlander

    Goldschmidt will take his first hacks against an increasingly vulnerable Justin Verlander tonight, and could certainly crush something off the Tigers’ right-hander. He’s hitting .396 this month and produced 50 DK points while homering in each of his last two games, so the price tag is high for a reason, but he could pay it off. Verlander is allowing RHB to sport a .385 wOBA this season, and has clearly lost something on his pitches. It would be pretty surprising if Goldschmidt didn’t make some noise against the former Ace.

    Potential Value:

    Kendrys Morales (MIN) produced DK points for the 10th straight game yesterday and could be a cheap stack option against LHP T.J. House for $3800.

    Longshot:

    Dan Johnson is a huge bargain at the minimum $2000 as long as he’s batting 6th or 7th in a still dangerous Blue Jays lineup.



    Second Base:

    Brian Dozier (MIN) vs. CLE: $4600 – Facing LHP T.J. House

    Dozier is sporting a .368 wOBA against LHP this season, and crushed the Rockies left-handed starters in the Twins previous series. Now he’ll get at least a few at bats against a young southpaw in House that has struggled with a 5.53 FIP and 1.61 HR/9 against Major League righties in his rookie campaign. Potentially leading off at home, Dozier is in a good position to succeed tonight.

    Potential Value:

    Aaron Hill (ARI) is a solid option at $4000. He’s heating up lately and could be part of a stack against Verlander.

    Longshot:

    Stacking Giants against Cliff Lee is the longshot stack of the day, since Lee can always implode, and Marco Scutaro is extremely cheap at $2800.



    Third Base:

    Anthony Rendon (WAS) @ COL: $4600 – Facing LHP Franklin Morales

    The Nationals are one of the top stacks of the day because of their ability to crush lefties, and Rendon is one of the best platoon hitters they have. The former first round pick is hitting over a hundred points higher and sporting a .416 wOBA against LHP this season. Morales has some horrible peripheral stats that would indicate regression is coming in this start, and Rendon will pose a difficult matchup for him as he likely bats 2nd for Washington.

    Potential Value:

    Brock Holt is always a reasonable option at $4100. The Red Sox leadoff hitter will look to spark the offense against inconsistent RHP Drew Hutchison tonight.

    Longshot:

    Josh Harrison (PIT) could also be batting 2nd tonight against a tough lefty. He is 2 for 4 against Ryu and is longshot material at $3500 after stealing two bases yesterday.



    Shortstop:

    Dee Gordon (LAD) @ PIT: $4400 – Facing RHP Edison Volquez

    Gordon collected 2 more hits last night and is now batting .317 this month as he’s done his part to jump-start the Dodgers offense. Their lineup may be depleted without Yasiel Puig or Hanley Ramirez tonight, but I wouldn’t count the remaining Dodgers hitters out with Edinson Volquez tossing for the Pirates. Regression could be coming for the Pirates’ inconsistent right-hander, and Gordon does have the platoon advantage here. He’s a solid option in 50/50 and H2H formats.

    Potential Value:

    J.J. Hardy has plenty of upside at $3600. The Orioles SS continues to produce out of the 6-spot and could be part of a solid stack against RHP Matt Shoemaker tonight.

    Longshot:

    Playing Xander Bogaerts (BOS) is the definition of a longshot, but the Red Sox prospect is better than he’s shown the last couple months and could be productive against Drew Hutchison.



    Outfielders:

    Adam Jones (BAL) @ LAA: $4700 – Facing RHP Matt Shoemaker

    This contest is worth targeting even though the O/U is set at just 8.5 runs. Shoemaker has been very shaky over his past few starts, and could easily serve up a couple of long balls to the Orioles dangerous hitters. Jones flashed his ridiculous upside with a HR, 5 RBI, 2 SB, and a whopping 39 DK points on Saturday, which makes him a top-tier talent being shopped at an upper-tier price.

    Kole Calhoun (LAA) vs. BAL: $4400 – Facing RHP Bud Norris

    Calhoun proved that his mini-slump was just that as he got back into a groove with 3 H, 2 runs and a HR in yesterday’s win, and will likely leadoff in another plus matchup. Bud Norris was not sharp in his first start off the DL and could have a rough outing tonight with Calhoun and Mike Trout starting things for the Angels. I’ll play him in this price range against most mediocre right-handers.

    Melky Cabrera (TOR) vs. BOS: $4100 – Facing RHP John Lackey

    This may be a regret play, considering Melky was the most productive Toronto hitter in an effective stack against Nick Tepesch yesterday, but I think he has a decent shot to keep rolling against Lackey tonight. Cabrera has seen all the clubs in Lackey’s bag as he’s 10 for 31 against the Red Sox starter, and seems to be comfortable hitting 3rd as long as Encarnacion is out for the Jays.



    Potential Values:

    Steve Pearce (BAL) is slowing down lately, but still has the occasional multi-hit game and is worth consideration at $4100 if he’s batting 2nd for the O’s.

    David Peralta (ARI) is always a candidate for multiple hits and is a relatively safe bet at $3500 against Verlander.

    Maybe Dan Robertson (TEX) draws consideration as the every day leadoff man instead of a platoon specialist. If he’s leading off for the Rangers I’d punt with his $2200 price tag.


    I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7

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