Expert Mock Draft Analysis: Part 2

Expert Mock Draft Analysis: Part 2

In part two of a two-part series, FFToolbox's fantasy football analysts Rob Warner and Larry Gold break down the good, the bad and the ugly from a recent EXPERT MOCK DRAFT with some of the best and brightest fantasy minds out there. In this article, Rounds 9 to 16 are covered.

To read Part 1, click here.

About two weeks ago, FFToolbox hosted an expert mock draft. Some of the participants were our writers and a few of the attendees were some of the most highly-ranked, highly-decorated and (most importantly) highest-paid fantasy football players in the world. No other site on the 'net can go straight to the direct source and team up with some of the best fantasy football experts in the world. It's one thing to have an opinion like any of the thousands of writers online. It's another to put thousands of dollars on the line, go up against some of the toughest competition in the world and be able to call yourself a champion.

If you want to challenge yourself and test how good you really are, consider signing up for the Scout Fantasy Football World Championships: Powered by FFToolbox. These guys (and gals) are the best in the world and have the ranking and over-sized checks to prove it.

In this second part of two, Larry and Rob once again will take alternating turns breaking down the ADP values, possible busts and share some general strategy insights for each round. If you would like to join the discussion and critique the picks of this expert mock draft, please join us on our message board. We're here to help you win!


Expert mock Rounds 9 to 16
Click to enlarge.


ROUND 9

Larry Gold: Santos was thin at RB, lacking depth behind Charles and Gerhart. MJD, Sproles and Woodhead would of all been better options than WR Randle. De Lima could of likely grabbed Marvin Jones a round or two later (Pick No. 102 vs. 126.57 ADP). Woodhead, at this point of the draft is great value assuming Donald Brown doesn't cut into production. Deming continued stock-piling unproven young players, but Terrance West may be golden if Ben Tate busts in Cleveland. Tavon Austin landing three rounds later than in his rookie season and will be PPR gold if Sam Bradford can get it together.

Rob Warner: The ADP data suggests that M. Jones went a bit early, but he is the Bengals #2 WR and could build on a productive 2013 season where he hauled in ten scores despite playing just under half of the snaps. I couldn’t believe the value still available at the QB position as Matt Ryan and Robert Griffin have top-five potential at their position and represent tremendous value in Round 9.

ROUND 10

Rob Warner: This round saw a run on tight ends (Zach Ertz, Martellus Bennett, Charles Clay)and committee running backs (Christine Michael, Bernard Pierce, Jeremy Hill, Tre Mason). The best value of the round might be Eagles second-year TE Ertz at No. 110 (101.43 ADP) as he’s expected to unseat veteran Brent Celek. Ertz (compared to Shannon Sharpe by the Eagles TE coach) should play a big role in replacing some of the targets vacated by DeSean Jackson in the high-scoring Eagles offense. Two former Packers could be considered the riskiest picks of the round as Greg Jennings and James Jones will be hard-pressed to produce consistent WR3 numbers as both are saddled with mediocre signal-callers. This was probably the round to target quarterbacks with Tony Romo, Cam Newton, Jay Cutler, Colin Kaepernick and Tom Brady still on the board.

Larry Gold: I'm on board with Ertz as well. Ritchie was rewarded for waiting on TE. Round 10 is a fantasy explosion waiting to happen, as it may collectively outscore Round 8. All the running backs in this round are one injury away from being 250-plus touch guys.

ROUNDS 11 & 12

Larry Gold: As always, waiting on QB pays off. Romo, Newton, Culter, Brady and Kaepernick all lasted until the 11th round. Injury-prone or not, Knowshon Moreno gets no love in drafts. Parson got away with thievery here. Lowy was thin at WR so grabbing sleeper Justin Hunter and talented but troubled Kenny Britt was smooth. Andrew Hawkins and Rod Streater went way too early relative to their ADP. Both Kimra and Gold should of waited with their picks. Santos redeemed himself from Round 9 with a steal of Carlos Hyde.

Rob Warner: No love for the signal-callers continues as more QB1 values here their names called. I thought Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning in Round 4 was great value, but this group could all crack the top-five if the stars align. This was a round that some of my favorite young PPR sleepers come off the board. Robert Woods will fill the Stevie Johnson role in Buffalo, Markus Wheaton replaces Emmanuel in the Pittsburgh Steelers offense planning to use more no-huddle formations and Hunter looks to build on his late season push (two 100-plus yard performances in Weeks 12 & 14 before a shoulder injury ended his season).

ROUNDS 13 & 14

Rob Warner: I was surprised to see a defense come off the board in Round 12, but Seattle could justify the investment; however, the St Louis DST in Round 13 was a questionable move. They had the third-most sacks in the league last season and have been a top-10 DST the past two seasons. Lance Moore and Jeremy Kerley have ADPs outside the top 200 so probably weren’t worth selecting here. Some of the better picks in these two rounds included Ben Roethlisberger at pick No. 157 (although I’m not sure I’d want him as my QB1 as Deming opted to do) and Ryan Tannehill at pick No. 166 (146.24 ADP). Miami was the third-most pass-happy team in 2013, but the addition of offensive coordinator Bill Lazor (Eagles QB coach under Chip Kelly’s last season) could result in a more balanced attack in 2014.

Larry Gold: I like that most owners continued to pluck away at depth, while waiting until the last two rounds for defense and kicker. I feel Antonio Gates was the best attempt at value, as he should be a reliable option for Philip Rivers for much of the year. As Rob pointed out, Deming has some gamble in him, opting to wait on QB this long, coming away with Big Ben.

ROUNDS 15 & 16

Larry Gold: Those already set at kicker and defense plucked some fliers that may pan out. Santos again made a slick pick with Lance Dunbar. If Murray gets injured again, Dunbar will shine. David Wilson has too much speed to be dismissed and will factor in the Giants rotation if his neck checks out. Deming was the last to draft a QB with Big Ben. Grabbing Dalton in the last round for depth was smart. People are overreacting to OC Hugh Jackson's preference to run. With A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and Giovani Bernard around, Dalton will still chuck it all over.

Rob Warner: Not much to see here as kickers and defenses dominate the final two rounds, but a few players stand out as major values, especially Dalton. While the Bengals are expected to go more run heavy under Hue Jackson, they are still blessed with a solid group of pass catchers including Green, Jones and Bernard. Dalton should at least be worth considering in favorable matchups. Heath Miller returns as Big Ben’s security blanket and should have TE1 upside. Provided he’s 100-percent (struggled last season after a major knee injury late in 2012). Miller should see a ton of red zone targets as the Steelers' starting WRs rival the smurfs (Antonio Brown, Wheaton and Moore are all under six feet). A return to his 2012 stat line of 71 catches for 816 yards and eight touchdowns is possible especially with rumors of the Steelers implementing more no huddle this season.


Full expert mock
Click to enlarge.

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