- Cleveland Indians hosting RHP Brandon McCarthy
- Kansas City Royals visiting RHP Alex Cobb
- Seattle Mariners hosting RHP Kyle Gibson
- St. Louis Cardinals hosting RHP Brandon Cumpton
- Cincinnati Reds hosting RHP Dallas Beeler
Longshot stack:New York Mets hosting RHP Ervin Santana
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This slate is pretty cut and dry in terms of pitching, as it seems very unlikely that fading the top two options will work out very well. Darvish is coming off a rough outing against a Mets team that somehow only hits all-star caliber pitchers, and returns home to face an Astros squad that has served as his punching bag over the last couple years. The Rangers ace is 4-1, with a 2.29 ERA, .133 BAA, and 72 strikeouts to just 15 walks in 7 starts against their divisional foes. He’s flirted with a perfect game on a couple of those occasions, including a nearly perfect 8-inning, 1 H, 1 BB, 9 K shutout back on April 11. This is a prime situation for Darvish to bounce back and pitch lights out.
Chris Sale (CWS) @ BOS: $11,800 Facing RHP Rubby De La Rosa
Baseball is a strange sport. Unexpected things happen all the time, and no trend seems safe. But if the Boston Red Sox tag Chris Sale for 3 or more ER over 7 or less innings, after getting shut down by Scott Carroll and held down by John Danks the last two nights, it would simply be absurd. Red Sox hitters are either lost at the plate, pressing, or both, and their one legitimate threat in the middle of the lineup (David Ortiz), is 1 for 7 against Sale, who happens to be deadly against lefties. We saw Sale at his best against Seattle’s left-handed lineup, as he struck out 12 in a CGSO, and the Sox will have no chance if he brings that same stuff tonight.
Two Duds (Value Plays):
Alfredo Simon (CIN) vs. CHC: $8200 – Facing RHP Dallas Beeler
After last night's pitching debacle, you'd probably be happy to play a mid-tier SP that isn't going to torpedo your lineup. Simon should be that safe play, as he's posted 7 straight Quality Starts, including a 20.2 DK-point performance against the Cubs on June 23. The Reds RHP has been so successful because of his ability to turn up in clutch situations. He has an 84% strand rate, and opposing batters are hitting just .167 against Simon with RISP. Simon cut down on his walks, while also allowing just 0.66 HR/9 while going 4-0 in 6 June starts. He has a great chance to earn another Win as he starts opposite rookie Dallas Beeler at home tonight.
Rubby De La Rosa (BOS) vs. CWS: $7100 – Facing LHP Chris Sale
De La Rosa was designated for assignment after allowing 5 H, and 1 ER in consecutive starts (14 IP), but has looked every bit the part of a Major Leaguer. Aside from brief hiccups against the Orioles and Tigers, Rubby has shut down lineups. He has an 8.4 K/9 ratio, 2.51 ERA, and 1.02 WHIP through 5 starts. The White Sox have struck out the 3rd most times (783) of any MLB team this season, which could help make for the fact that De La Rosa almost certainly won’t get a Win, as the Sox struggling offense is unlikely to provide much run support against Sale. He's got the tools to become an elite SP, and perhaps eventually the Red Sox closer. The young prospect tops out around 97 MPH on the radar gun, with a very good collection of off-speed pitches to get hitters out.
Salvador Perez (KC) @ TB: $3900 – Facing RHP Alex Cobb
The Royals are heating up going into the break and they'll face a stretch of beatable pitchers over the next few days. Perez has been one of their more consistent hitters and has been moving up the order- he was batting 3rd last night, which led to an extra at bat in the 9th inning for him to come through with a 2 RBI double. Cobb has coughed up 19 H, and 12 ER, with a 2.00 K:BB ratio in his last 3 starts, making Kansas City a candidate for a solid mini-stack tonight. Perez is batting nearly 100 points higher against RHP (.304), and happens to be 4 for 9 (.444) off Cobb. He's a great option at catcher for a reasonable price.
Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) continues to rake, and remains a steal at $2600. He’ll face Ervin Santana, who has been very underwhelming for months now.
Dillon Gee will make his first start since May 10 tonight, and he’ll have to contend with a locked-in Freddie Freeman in the middle of the Braves increasingly dangerous lineup. He’s averaging 10.6 DK points over his last 8 games, and will have a platoon advantage over the right-hander. Gee is a solid pitcher, but could definitely show some rust as he faces Major League hitters. Freeman is batting .394 with 7 XBH against Mets pitching this season, and should continue to terrorize their staff tonight.
Matt Adams (STL) is a suitable value option at $4000. He’ll likely be in the middle of the Cardinals order as they host weak RHP Brandon Cumpton.
Omar Infante (KC) @ TB: $3800 – Facing RHP Alex Cobb
Along with Sal Perez, Infante has been a huge part of the Royals run during the first half, as he’s batting .330 with 21 RBI over the past month and has been one of the best offensive 2B in the MLB during that span. Cobb is not an intimating opponent right now, and Infante has strong reverse platoon splits. He also has great numbers against Tampa’s right-handed relievers, which could come into play if Cobb ends up melting down again. Infante has reached base in 13 straight starts, so he’s a pretty safe play at this price tag with potential upside as part of a stack.
Kike Hernandez (HOU) will appear as a potential value until DraftKings makes him more than the minimum $2000. Even if he’s facing Yu Darvish, he has reasonable upside for a punt play and has reached base in all 8 of his Major League appearances.
Carlos Santana (CLE) vs. NYY: $4300 – Facing RHP Brandon McCarthy
McCarthy, who has struggled to navigate weak N.L. lineups for most of the season, is an interesting addition to a shorthanded Yankees rotation. He’s a groundball pitcher by trade, but has the worst HR/FB ratio in the MLB at 20% and will now pitch half his games in the stadium with the highest Home Run Factor in the Majors. He’ll also face lineups that have dangerous LHB throughout, and he’s allowed lefties to post a .365 wOBA this season. Santana, and a few of his teammates, should garner consideration in GPP formats tonight, as they could easily start a rally full of XBH off McCarthy. American League batters are hitting .396 off him McCarthy in 2 interleague starts this year, and Cleveland has put up 35 runs over the past 7 days.
Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE) is a value alternative that could also be productive against McCarthy. He’s more of a 50/50 or H2H play at $3700.
Mike Moustakas (KC) has bounced back after a stint in AAA. He’s a GPP only play at $3400 if he’s in the lineup against Alex Cobb.
Billy Hamilton (CIN) vs. CHC: $4400 – Facing RHP Dallas Beeler
He’s the most expensive SS on the board, but $4400 is still a relative bargain for a player that has produced 60 DK points over his last 3 appearances. Hamilton collected 6 hits, and 2 BB during that span, and Beeler did struggle with his control during his Major League debut last week. The Cubs young RHP tries to elicit groundballs, and that doesn’t always work with Hamilton, who is batting .325 over the past 30 days despite posting a relatively high ground ball rate. Of course he also has 17 SB during that span, the real reason for his high price tag and tremendous upside. With few stellar options available at SS tonight, he could be worth paying up for.
Jhonny Peralta (STL) would be a cheaper GPP alternative to Hamilton. He’s $3500, with reverse platoon splits, and plenty of power as he faces RHP Brandon Cumpton.
If you’re hoping the horrible version of Kyle Gibson shows up, play Mariners SS Brad Miller. He doesn’t have much upside as he will potentially bat 9th, but could be part of a small stack.
The Brewers, seemingly aware of Gomez’s superior numbers as a leadoff man, moved him back to the top of the order last night, and he responded with 3 H, and a SB to produce 16 DK points. He should be leading off again tonight as the Brewers host the aging Roberto Hernandez, a RHP that Gomez is 2 for 4 against with a double and a HR. CarGo has reverse platoon splits, and a .260 ISO when batting first this season, so he won’t lose much power as a leadoff hitter. The all-star is a relative value at this price.
Michael Brantley (CLE) vs. NYY: $4500 – Facing RHP Brandon McCarthy
We mentioned the potential for McCarthy to struggle, but it doesn’t really matter who Brantley is facing when he’s on a tear like this. He’s averaging 13.2 DK points over his last 7 appearances, and was a huge part of the Indians’ handing Tanaka a loss last night. Brantley has a .493 wOBA when he faces RHP at home this season, and is batting .379 overall at Progressive Field. He’s a great option in all formats tonight.
Lorenzo Cain (KC) @ TB: $4100 – Facing RHP Alex Cobb
Cain’s value has really received a boost in recent days as he’s moved into the Royals leadoff spot, and could run away with the job after reaching base in all 5 plate appearances last night. He’s 10 for his last 22, and could be scoring plenty of runs if you believe in a Royals stack tonight. He’s 3 for 3 on SB attempts, and the added opportunities to run should make up for a lack of RBI opportunities atop the order.
Ben Revere (PHI) has produced DK points in 15 straight games, and is a good option in 50/50 and H2H formats at $3800.
Michael Saunders is averaging 8.7 DK points since coming off the DL on June 27. He costs just $3600 and may be leading off for the Mariners tonight.
Steven Vogt (OAK) got his first day off in 12 days yesterday, but has been a consistent producer in the A’s dangerous lineup and shouldn’t cost as little as $2800.
I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7
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