Scouting The MLB - July 4

Scouting The MLB - July 4

Our Daily Fantasy Sports expert breaks down tonight's MLB slate so you don't have to worry about researching during the holiday

Weather Report

  • Scattered storms could affect the value of SP in the Rockies game
  • Showers in New York will likely delay the Mets game

Stackable Menu

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers visiting RHP Jair Jurrjens
  2. St.Louis Cardinals hosting RHP Nathan Eovaldi
  3. Detroit Tigers hosting RHP Alex Cobb

Longshot stack: Cleveland Indians hosting RHP Yordano Ventura


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Pitcher

Yu Darvish (TEX) @ NYM: $12,200 – Facing LHP Jon Niese

The Rangers pushed back Darvish's start so that he could potentially pitch deep into a game, but the weather is still a concern as they open a series in New York tonight. With showers expected until 8 or 9 p.m. at Citi Field, the game could run in full after a rain delay, at which point the 22 MPH winds blowing into the stadium would aid both SP. The Mets' stadium has the lowest Run Factor in the MLB, they're batting a collective .223 at home, and have scored the fewest runs in their own ballpark (127) in the Majors this year. With storms expected to hit Coors Field at some point during Clayton Kershaw's start, Darvish is probably the safest elite pitcher this 4th of July, and one with tons of upside as he looks to boost his league-leading 11.04 K/9 ratio by facing the strikeout-prone Mets.



Value Play:

Dallas Keuchel (HOU) @ LAA: $7,500 – Facing LHP C.J. Wilson

Keuchel is a value play that is capable of performing at an elite level. Sure, the Angels are a dangerous offense that hits LHP well, and Keuch has walked 4 and allowed 4 ER in B2B starts, but I think he bounces back on the road tonight. The big lefty is an innings eater, as he uses his sinking pitches to elicit ground balls at a league-leading 63.4% rate. His increasing walk rate raises some concerns, but Keuchel is still limiting opposing batters to a .259 wOBA and has a stellar 2.69 FIP on the road this season. He shut down the Angels in L.A. back on May 19, drawing 18 ground balls, striking out 8, and producing 31.9 DK points over 8.2 innings. He may have struggled in his last start at Tropicana Field, but still went 8 innings, and with every inning worth 2.25 DK points, he's a very solid bet to exceed value at this price.



Batters

Catcher:

Miguel Montero (ARI) @ ATL: $4000 – Facing RHP Ervin Santana

Santana is coming back around with Quality Starts in 5 of his last 6 outings, but he's still struggling mightily against LHB. Lefties are sporting a .397 wOBA, and slugging .512 against Santana, while righties have just a .250 wOBA and .291 slugging percentage. Montero's wOBA in over .200 points higher, and 20 of his 23 XBH have come against RHP this season. He comes into this game having produced DK points in 8 straight games, and the Diamondbacks may have found an answer to their offensive struggles with David Peralta heating up towards the top of their order, we'll see if they get to Santana in their second meeting with the right-hander this month.

Potential Value:

A.J. Ellis (LAD) could be productive in the second game of the Dodgers' series at Coors Field. He may bat 8th again, but costs just $3100 and will face RHP Jair Jurrjens, who hasn't faced MLB hiitters in a year.



First Base:

Freddie Freeman (ATL) vs. ARI: $4700 – Facing RHP Josh Collmenter

It's another fantastic matchup for Friendly Freddie as he faces a pitcher that he's owned, and one that has struggled against all LHB throughout his career. Collmenter is allowing lefties to post a .390 wOBA in road starts this year, and has allowed Freeman to go 7 for 12 with a double and a HR when they've met. He hasn't blown up in many games, but Freeman has produced DK points in 21 straight outings, so there aren't many safer options to fill the 1B slot tonight.

Potential Value:

Matt Adams (STL) is $700 cheaper than Freeman and in a very similar situation as he faces a RHP (Nathan Eovaldi) that struggles against lefties. Expect Big City to lace at least a couple of singles in that matchup.



Second Base:

Jose Altuve (HOU) @ LAA: $5200 – Facing LHP C.J. Wilson

Altuve is hot enough to warrant consideration no matter who he's facing, but his numbers against LHP may seal the deal this holiday. The Astros leadoff man is hitting an absurd .438 against lefties this season, and is 11 for 12 on SB attempts against southpaws. He's stolen 37 bags in 40 tries, and went 17 for 17 in June including a 7-game streak with a SB to end the month. Altuve is part of the reason that lefties have struggled to navigate the Astros lineup, and Wilson has been below average with a 9.00 ERA, and .324 BAA in 2 starts against Houston this year. He may post a Quality Start at home tonight, but all you need is Altuve to reach base, as he's quickly become one of the premier speed threats in the game.

Potential Value:

Logan Forsythe (TB) should be back in the Rays lineup as the face LHP Drew Smyly. He's been red hot and should be able to exceed value at $3700.



Third Base:

Juan Uribe (LAD) @ COL: $3500 – Facing RHP Jair Jurrjens

Batters should be safe to use in Denver tonight even if thunderstorms delay the game, and Uribe is going to get his hacks in no matter what. The veteran has strong reverse-platoon splits throughout his career, and continues to hit RHP this season with a .319 average and 4 HR in 138 at bats against righties. He's 5 for 9 with two doubles and a HR of Jurrjens, who has a 4.50 ERA and .307 BAA in 4 starts at Coors Field. Uribe, who began his career with the Rockies, is batting .283 and has a whopping 79 XBH in 704 at bats at Coors throughout his career. He should be able to test Jurrjens in the pitcher's return to Major League action.

Potential Value:

Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) could be an extreme value at $2600. He's been batting 9th for manager Bo Porter and is averaging 10.8 DK points over his last 5 starts.



Shortstop:

Scooter Gennett (MIL) @ CIN: $4000 – Facing RHP Alfredo Simon

Suprisingly, Gennett has two hits in 6 career at bats off Simon, and both have left the yard. Power isn't his calling card, and likely won't be his intention as the Brewers leadoff man tonight, but he will be hitting in Great American Ballpark, which just surpassed Yankee Stadium as the field with the highest Home Run Factor in the Majors. Gennett has been on fire in a platooning role as he slashed .397 with a fantastic .485 wOBA during the month of June. You have to back to May 24 (22 starts ago) to find a game where Gennett started, and failed to produce DK points. He's a solid option as always tonight.

Potential Values:

The Cardinals offense is really struggling, but Jhonny Peralta ($3600) has been hot for the past few weeks. He'll face struggling RHP Nathan Eovaldi tonight.

Kike Hernandez is still the minimum $2000 and would be a fine punt play if he's in the Astros lineup.



Outfielders:

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) @ STL: $5600 – Facing RHP Lance Lynn

Stanton has struck out 5 times in 8 plate appearances against Lynn, but the last time I ignored the Marlins' slugger because of a small sample size of poor splits, he went yard (twice). That's the difference between this year's Stanton and the one we've seen over the past few seasons, and he's worth a look against a SP that has been very up-and-down this season. There's a 43% increase in Home Run Factor going from Marlins Stadium to Busch Stadium, and the way Lynn tries to blow it by most hitters, Stanton could be able to turn around a fastball with lethal results.

Michael Brantley (CLE) vs. KC: $4500 – Facing RHP Yordano Ventura

Brantley continues to be one of the most consistent producers in DFS, and he returns home, for tonight's series opener, where he's batting .350 this season. The Indians lefties will look to pound Ventura, as the young flamethrower is allowing LHB to post a .364 wOBA on the road this season. Not only is Brantley batting .329 against RHP this year, he's walked 3 more times (18) than he's struck out, and a batter that puts the ball in play is more valuable in every situation.

J.D. Martinez (DET) vs. TB: $4100 – Facing RHP Alex Cobb

Cobb has been lit up over his last two starts, and there's no reason to expect much relief against the Tigers red-hot offense. With Victor Martinez back in the cleanup spot, J.D. is free to drive in runs from the 5 spot, and he did just that with 2 hits and 2 RBI during last night's win. He's batting .354 since the start of June, and has crushed most righties with a .701 slugging percentage against RHP this season. If Cobb falters again, both Martinez's will be all over him.



Potential Values:

David Peralta (ARI) should also benefit from Ervin Santana's struggles against lefties. The D'Backs outfielder is suddenly an elite producer as he dropped 20+ DK points for the 2nd time in 5 starts, and comes into tonight's game 8 for his last 14.

Depending on his placement in the Cardinals lineup, Jon Jay could be a great value at $3300. He's 2 for 5 of Nathan Eovaldi, who has allowed lefties to post a .365 wOBA this season.

Ender Inciarte (ARI) is just $2500 and remains a discounted option that will likely leadoff against Ervin Santana.


I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7

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