Storms could effect the game at Coors Field tonight
- Detroit Tigers visiting RHP Colby Lewis
- Chicago White Sox visiting RHP Miguel Gonzalez
- Toronto Blue Jays hosting RHP David Phelps
- Seattle Mariners hosting RHP Jake Peavy
- Arizona Diamondbacks (lefites) hosting RHP Justin Masterson
Longshot stack: Baltimore Orioles hosting LHPJose Quintana
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Kershaw's price tag has reached astronomical heights, but when you consider the fact that he's coming off a no-hit, 15 K performance (Good for 64.3 DK points) it's actually rather reasonable. There are enough value plays in the outfield to squeeze the Dodgers LHP into your lineup, and that seems to be the way to go in 50/50 and H2H formats. Sure the Royals have made mince meat out of some great pitchers this season. They touched up Zach Greinke for a season-high 5 ER last night, demolished Max Scherzer last week, and got to Corey Kluber as well, but they haven't hit lefties well at all. The Royals have a measly .110 ISO and have scored the 5th fewest runs (65) in the MLB against LHP this season. Kansas City's Kaufmann Stadium is in the Major Leagues' bottom 10 in terms of Run Factor and Home Run Factor, so Kershaw is in a great position to succeed.
Scott Kazmir (OAK) @ NYM: $9000 – Facing RHP Bartolo Colon
Kazmir is rolling this month with a 1.37 ERA and a 9.2 K/9 ratio through 4 starts. He's won his last three decisions against tough A.L. East offenses (Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles) and will now travel to a National League park to take on one of the most inept offenses in baseball. The Mets have produced the 4th fewest runs (64) in the MLB, and struck out the 4th most times amongst N.L. teams against LHP. That number is sure to increase with possibly the worst professional to ever step into a batter's box- Bartolo Colon- forced to bat at least twice tonight. Current Mets have more strikeouts (16) than hits (13) in 44 career at bats against Kazmir, and Colon has 73 strikeouts to just 11 career hits (1 in the last 9 years). Needless to say, you should feel pretty confident deploying Kazmir as he toes the rubber in pitcher-friendly Citi Field tonight.
Two Duds (Value Plays)
Arrieta is single-handedly proving that there is a huge discrepancy between offenses in the A.L. and N.L. as the former Baltimore SP suddenly looks like an ace for the Cubs. He's allowed 1 ER while striking out 27 batters over his last three starts, and is averaging an impressive 32.6 DK points during that span. Arrieta has pitched extremely well at home this season (1 ER and 0 HR allowed in 16 IP) as he's been able to elicit weak contact and avoid giving up deep fly balls at windy Wrigley Field. His 53% ground ball rate, and 2.31 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) would rank 2nd in the Majors behind Felix Hernandez if Arrieta qualified. His 0.36 HR/9 ratio would also rank 5th in the MLB if he qualified, and those numbers will be vital if he wants to slow down the slugging Reds tonight.
Bartolo Colon (NYM) vs. OAK: $7100 – Facing LHP Scott Kazmir
As hilarious as it will be to watch him hit against Kazmir, Colon is a worthy adversary on the mound tonight and could easily exceed value at this price tag. He's always had a troubling HR/FB ratio, but this late in his career, it's vital for Big Bart to pitch in a spacious ballpark. That's why his numbers are so much better at home: 2.34 ERA, 0.78 HR/9, a fantastic 11.33 K/BB ratio, and allowing opposing hitters to post a .247 wOBA at Citi Field. His road splits are far worse, which is why he's averaging 24 DK points at home and just 11.8 on the road this year. The Athletics obviously have a dangerous offense, and it will be interesting to see how they approach facing their former teammate tonight, but as long as he's throwing gas and pounding the bottom of the zone, Colon should be able to post a 7th consecutive Quality Start.
Miguel Montero (ARI) vs. CLE: $4100 – Facing RHP Justin Masterson
How bad is Justin Masterson against lefties? Well, over 75% of the XBH he's allowed over the last three and a half seasons have come from LHB, and this year, he's allowing an OPS over .200 points higher against lefties. He's been even worse against LHB away from Cleveland this season, where he has a 6.20 ERA and has allowed lefties to post a .387 wOBA. In short, he struggles against the platoon, and Montero basically only rakes against RHP, so tonight's the night to deploy him. Arizona's backstop has no pop against LHP, as he's posted a woeful .063 ISO (slugging minus average) against lefties, compared to his .204 mark against right-handers. He's struggled in the last couple weeks, but was red-hot as the calendar turned from May to June and I have a feeling he fills the box score tonight.
Steven Vogt (OAK) is a DFS revelation. He's produced in 9 of his last 10 games and remains a huge bargain at $2800.
Victor Martinez (DET) @ TEX: $4700 – Facing RHP Colby Lewis
I'm a big fan of the Martinez combination tonight as the red-hot J.D. Martinez will likely bat behind Victor in the 5-spot and both Tigers have a great chance to produce in this matchup. Rangers RHP Colby Lewis has been knocked around repeatedly at home, and will come into tonight's contest with a 7.42 ERA in Arlington. The Rangers' stadium was designed as a hitter-friendly ballpark, and that's why LHB slugged the 5th most HR (110) at Globe Life Park last season. With winds blowing out to RF tonight, Victor could definitely launch his 20th bomb of the season. The switch-hitter is 7 for 14 in his career against Lewis, who has the 2nd lowest ground ball rate in baseball (31.7%) and could get rocked for the 7th straight start.
Adam Lind (TOR) is a steal right now at $3700. He started for the first time since coming off the DL and posted 27 DK points last night, and also happens to be 4 for 12 with 2 doubles and 2 HR off Yankees starter David Phelps.
Robinson Cano (SEA) vs. BOS: $4700 – Facing RHP Jake Peavy
I'd say it's yet another night to pay down at second base, but if you find yourself able to spend at the position, Cano could certainly be part of a Mariners stack against Peavy. The Red Sox right-hander could implode tonight, as he has a 5.23 ERA on the road and has given up 24 H and 12 ER in his last 4 starts at Safeco Field. Peavy has been smacked around by LHB for the last few years, but this season he's given up 9 HR to lefties- the 4th most in the Majors. Cano is 5 for 12 with 2 doubles, 1 HR, and 4 RBI against him, and should add to those numbers as the Mariners continue to make this a rough road trip for the Sox.
It's somewhat of a mystery how, but Ramirez has thrown 15.2 straight scoreless innings and lowered his ERA to 4.62 on the year. He's still one of the worst pitchers in baseball, and didn't make it past the 6th inning against three of the worst offenses (Padres, Rangers, and Rays) in the league, so I don't think he blanks the Red Sox tonight by any means. I'm recommending Holt as the table-setter in that lineup, which makes him a solid play in cash games due to the likelihood that he gets on base a couple of times and scores. Xander Bogaerts has more upside at 3B because of his power, but few hitters have been as consistent as the pesky Holt this season, and he could easily make solid contact a few times against this lackluster right-hander.
Conor Gillaspie (CWS) is another 3B that produces very often and is batting .337 this season. He'll face RHP Miguel Gonzalez, who struggles against lefties.
Alexei Ramirez (CWS) @ BAL: $3700 – Facing RHP Miguel Gonzalez
Speaking of White Sox infielders, Ramirez is a solid mid-tier value at SS that could potentially pay off in a big way tonight. Orioles starter Miguel Gonzalez simply does not have much movement on his fastball, and that's why he's been squared up for 1.42 HR per 9 innings this season. While Ramirez's power has abandoned him over the last month, he's been better against RHP this season and almost all of his power numbers have come against righties. He could break out of the drought by depositing one of Gonzalez's offerings over the fence at Camden Yards.
If you need to save even more at SS, look at the opposite dugout at J.J. Hardy (BAL), who has hit safely in 5 straight and is 3 for 8 with a HR off White Sox LHP Jose Quintana.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) @ PHI: $5400 – Facing RHP David Buchanan
Stanton continued to flash his versatility as he stole a base and produced double-digit DK points without homering for the third straight game. He's one of the safer bets in DFS right now, and worth a look if you find yourself able to spend on OF spots tonight. Phillies starter David Buchanan had a great outing against the Cardinals, but is still an unproven rookie that is allowing RHB to slug nearly 200 points higher than lefties (.536). All it takes is one mistake to Stanton, especially in a hitter-friendly stadium like Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park.
Adam Jones (BAL) vs. CWS: $4900 – Facing LHP Jose Quintana
The Orioles managed to get to lefty ace Chris Sale last night, and Jones led the charge with a 2-run blast. If you needed more proof that he AJ crushes any lefty in his path, you have it, and Jones is now batting a ridiculous .410 with 6 HR in 78 at bats against LHP this season. He can hit soft-throwers like Quintana too, as he is 3 for 6 with 2 HR and 2 BB against the White Sox starter tonight, so I'm willing to roll with Jones in this matchup.
J.D. Martinez (DET) @ TEX: $3600 – Facing RHP Colby Lewis
As mentioned above, Colby Lewis is facing an uphill battle as he welcomes this Tigers lineup to hitter-friendly Globe Life Park, and Martinez is a great mid-tier value that could get to him. The Tigers new 5-hitter has 5 HR, 16 RBI, and an excellent .375 ISO in the month of June, and I wouldn't expect him to slow down tonight.
Gerardo Parra (ARI) could also take advantage of Justin Masterson's inability to handle LHB. He's $3800 and should be leading off for the Diamondbacks.
Logan Morrison (SEA) caught fire last night as he reached base 5 times, homered twice, and finished with 42 DK points. While he won't replicate that performance, he doesn't need to produce much to exceed value at $2900 and has a great matchup against Jake Peavy.
I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7
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